An Eye on Giants '24 Cap As Offseason #2 Ends
Visualizing a future cap roadmap as spreadsheet season ends & training camp opens
Missing from the hot takes on player contracts is often the context of how each contract is piece of the larger cap puzzle. Like any other budget managing the salary cap is making choices - and how teams spend their money is the most honest public commentary on those choices. The numbers don’t lie. Knowing that for the most part the “corner pieces” of each team’s puzzle are going to come from the draft, not free agency, and will likely include the QB, we actually have a clearer picture of the Giants future decision-making roadmap than probably most other teams. With offseason #2 completed we look at the numbers to see the choices they’ve made and the choices yet to come.
Many would be surprised to see how few veterans are on multi-year deals on each NFL roster. It is not atypical that more than half of the non-special teams 53 man roster are rookie contracts with another handful of veterans on 1 year deals. So there really aren’t very many multi-year veteran contracts on NFL rosters, though they do take up an outsized percentage of the team’s cap space.
In 2022 the Giants opening 53 had just 8 multi-year deals with veterans:
Tyrod Taylor (2.7m),
Mark Glowinski (3.3m),
Sterling Shepard (6.3m),
Kenny Golladay (21.2m),
Leonard Williams (15.3m),
Blake Martinez (7.5m),
Adoree Jackson (9.3m),
Graham Gano (2.9m)
Those 8 accounted for $67.5m of their $149m active cap, representing 45% of the Giants total active cap — and that’s despite 2 of those 8 having had their base salaries ‘pay cut’ down to the minimum (Shepard and Martinez). 3 others were restructured last year kicking money into this year and next (Williams, Gano, Jackson), 2 new ones were added (Taylor, Glowinski). Kenny Golladay’s contract was the only one left untouched so it could be wiped off the books as quickly as possible. Within weeks just half of that list was still healthy and starting.
Year 1 was a reno on a tight budget, though fortunately it ended up there were less problems behind the walls than most expected.
In year 2 bigger investments have been made and those investments will be central to whether or not momentum continues building toward relevance. The aggression should be commended because avoiding second year letdowns is historically challenging. When we look at the current top 9 veteran contracts and their impact over the next 3 years, we see a pretty dramatic multi-year impact from the veteran deals executed in the last several months. These top 9 contracts were all either created, adjusted, or selected by the new regime with the exception of inheriting Andrew Thomas rookie deal (more on that later), and combined these 9 players account for 52% of the team’s total 2023 salary cap (which is a comparable figure to last year’s top 8 group if we’d also included Thomas as #9).
Some Takeaways:
Daniel Jones (40m aav) and Dexter Lawrence (22m aav) were obviously cornerstones they paid big and bigger to secure, but Bobby Okereke (10m aav, 22m guaranteed) was seemingly also a pretty substantial piece. He essentially got the total $ targets Barkley was looking for (albeit over 4 years instead of 3). I don’t think it’s an understatement to say they paid him like they are expecting a pro bowler. It sounds like he’ll wear green dot which means he’ll be on the field all downs and possibly end up a captain. Fingers crossed like Antonio Pierce and Michael Boley before him he’s the infrequent UFA success story.
Highly motivated contract seasons are ahead for Leonard Williams, Adoree Jackson, and Saquon Barkley. All have made pro bowls and each had key moments under the current staff, the latter 2 having arguments for team MVP at more than one point last year, including Jackson’s coverage against Justin Jefferson in the wild card win. Jackson and Williams already have some dead money from void years on the books in 2024 (noted on the chart above with red Vs) and not unlike Barkley I’m a little surprised it seems the Giants didn’t more seriously attempt extending either early. The last post covered the Barkley contract situation at length so I won’t rehash. All enter the season with important roles and the opportunity to earn on the field what may be the last big multi-year deals of their careers, even if those deals may not be in NY. After surviving for parts of last year without Jackson and Williams the team smartly added depth from both free agency and the draft with A’Shawn Robinson, Deonte Banks, and others.
Darren Waller’s addition was a coup because it represents low risk for a high reward, but 2023 is almost equally as much of a ‘prove it’ year for him as the 3 players mentioned in #2 who don’t yet have contracts for 2024. Waller’s 31 years old, coming off 2 injured seasons, and thanks largely to a creative contract from the Raiders, he doesn’t have a ton of guaranteed money left even after the Giants converted a chunk of this year’s salary into signing bonus. With a 14.5m cap number scheduled next year, if they need to find $ for any of the players mentioned in #2, Waller’s contract is a potential piggy bank, especially if he doesn’t have a strong bounce back season or can’t stay on the field. Healthy and in form he is a special player who will change the entire offense.
Andrew Thomas is still on his rookie deal but I included him because in the above because he’s clearly next in line to extend at an amount probably in excess of Dexter Lawrence’s recent deal. I’d imagine Laremy Tunsil’s recent extension (3 year, $25m AAV, $50m guaranteed) factors into those discussions. A deal lower on the AAV but higher on the guaranteed money over a longer deal would seem to make sense given that Thomas is 4 years younger (sort of like Ronnie Stanley’s extension in Baltimore). Similar to how they lowered Dexter Lawrence’s year 1 cap # from that of his pre-existing 5th year option with his extension, we could see Thomas’ new contract serve as another “piggy bank” to gaining space in 2024.
A few others not in the chart but worth mentioning because it’s possible they play themselves into “bye week extension” discussions (and maybe next year’s chart). Sort of like Julian Love the challenge for each of these players is that they are victims of their current low rookie contract salaries along with the possibility that they may be replaceable by friends in their position rooms with more time left on their own rookie deals. Extending them means finding significant new money beyond what they are making now. It’s possible any of these players gets a gross raise on their AAV in their next contract on par with Andrew Thomas’ simply because he’s already on the 2024 cap at $14.5m.
Xavier McKinney is entering his contract year as the S tag continues to rise, likely in excess of $15m in 2024, if they choose to use it. He’s smart and tough but is he dependable enough? His contract situation is another surprising reason they let Love walk at a reasonable number since he’d have hedged against McKinney pricing himself out. Another way to look at that is however much they saved letting Love walk helps pay down McKinney’s potentially bigger contract. If he checks the reliability box this year.
Isaiah Hodgins projects to be an exclusive rights free agent, so he’s likely to remain a Giant, however if his breakout continues the window to get him signed to a reasonable early extension is going to be pretty small. If he replicates what he showed last year and continues developing into a quality #2 he’s going to be a $10m+ AAV player pretty quickly. I’m a Hodgins believer. His ability to get open and catch the football was just as it had been going back to college. He may be both a darkhorse and the favorite to lead all NYG receivers this season.
Azeez Ojulari is 2 seasons from free agency and 1 season removed from 8 sacks. He sort of falls into a similar category as Hodgins since both play premium positions - if you wanted to get him extended early at a reasonable number, the window to do that is probably small. I think there are enough flags with him that it’s not likely, but it’s possible. He has the ability to be a double digit sack guy and those are hard to find. When healthy he made a big impact in 2022.
Ben Bredeson is entering a walk year and finds himself in a position kind of like Nick Gates once he proved he was healthy again. He’s somewhat proven despite being 25, has some position flex and some upside, but isn’t an entrenched starter yet. Non-elite interior OL don’t generally get paid a ton in free agency so perhaps there’s a reasonable early extension that makes sense.
Closing Thoughts
Last year the new coaching staff got all pro seasons out of 3 players on their rookie deals and rode those 3 players (and Jones) to a lot of exciting and unexpected wins. One will play on the tag after failed extension negotiations, one of them extended as with Jones, and the third is in the on deck circle for probably the biggest extension of the 3 non-QBs. With a pretty young and thin roster that didn’t get a lot of production from their vested veterans, they still found their way to a fun road playoff win even if it came with a subsequent beat down from Philly. This year they have more quality players across the board and a lot more explosiveness - both from free agency and the draft. But with more talent will come more future choices that need to be made because you can’t pay everyone. I appreciate that this regime has placed a premium on flexibility, but the flip side of flexibility is that they may be risking paying more premium prices in the future by forgoing opportunities to get extensions done earlier.
That’s what happened with Daniel Jones, though that decision made more sense since it was the first season with new coaches and prior to getting back on the field healthy from the neck injury that ended his 2021. A year later his 2024 salary is big enough that it too looks like it could be a restructure piggy bank if necessary to continue adding (or retaining) talent around him if he stands up his 2022 performance. Optional contracts one day can turn into record setting contracts quickly.