Giants Trade Value Chart Confirmed?
Hey Rookie Producer, Welcome To 'You Forgot to Blur The Background'
You can probably file this in the category of minutia that’s meaningless beyond subreddits and message boards - but it appears that some background shots of the Giants draft room reveal their point values on different picks on the 4th episode of ‘Hey Rookie, Welcome to the NFL’ which follows Giants first round pick Malik Nabers among others.
In terms of data compromises this isn’t The Pentagon Papers, but I think it’s interesting nonetheless. I’d like think Dave Gettleman saw this and thought “This wouldn’t have hahppened with bindahs and magnits!”
There were 2 shots where various pick point totals were visible, arrayed on screens showing what appeared to be specific teams lists of allotted picks.
The first here shows the full board of the Chargers draft selections (before they later made a few trades). They entered the draft with picks #5, #37, #69, #105, #110, #140, #181, #225, #253. Joe Alt had been taken at #5 so the board removed the points associated but the rest of the point values were pretty easy to plot in to give us our clues to work backwards the rest of their point values.
The next visible shot that appeared was a little more blurred out but it gave us some more good clues. From the Falcons board we are able to get the points value of a high pick (#8, a little hard to read but somewhere above 1400 points) as well as some more picks in close enough proximity to the LAC picks in the following rounds so as to be able to calculate how much each pick is changing in each round. Solving it backwards, it appeared that:
2nd round picks descended by 10 points per pick
3rd round picks descended by 5 points per pick
4th round picks descended by 2 points per pick, at some point mid round may have reduced to 1 point per pick
5th round picks and beyond descended by fractional points where by the 7th round picks were practically meaningless (start of round at fewer than 5 total points, end of round less than 1 point)
At this point I was able to estimate most of the draft in a spreadsheet so I figured I’d cross check that with some common trade charts to see how similar it looked. I started with Draft Tek’s classic Jimmy Johnson chart and didn’t need to go too much farther because it basically aligned with the spreedsheet i’d been building (not too surprising since many real trades align and refine this chart).
The next thing thing I noticed ended up being the real interesting part of the exercise. In the upper corner of the 2nd image there had been a visible allotment of points but the screen was only partially in view, we didn’t know the team or the pick numbers. At this point I decided to check both the home-brewed spreadsheet and the Jimmy Johnson chart to see if I could figure out which team it was.
And this is where we have our confirmation:
So there you have it, the New York Giants pick values align within 5-10 points of the Classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart, which had not so long ago been rumored to be “obsolete”.
So what can this tell us?
Honestly not much. Like I said this isn’t really all that notable of a leak. Perhaps interesting is the values of the rumored trade package for the 3rd overall pick? Here I’m estimating the value of next year’s #1 at the 16th pick in the draft, probably a conservative estimate for the NYG pick since it could again be top 10, but also probably a fair discount since it’s a year out. Some reports have both #47 and a 2025 3rd rounder also in the package, I split the difference there and left out the 2025th 3rd.
