What Could This Year's Pete Alonso Extension Offer Look Like?
Unfortunately for Pete yesterday's price probably isn't today's price
A lot has changed in the year since Pete Alonso and his former agents turned down the now former Mets GM Billy Eppler’s 7 year $158m extension offer. Unfortunately for Pete, almost none of it appears good for his negotiating position.
Here’s what’s changed…
After a record spending offseason over 2022-2023 where 6 players were paid $162m+ on the open market, plus a few more extended early, the 2023-2024 offseason ended up a total bust. The biggest deal by AAV any non-pitcher landed was Cody Bellinger’s $26.6m for 3 years totaling just $80m.
Diamond Sports, holding the local broadcast rights for about 1/3 of the league, went into bankruptcy limbo and created major financial uncertainty. Many of those teams lowered their payrolls. The next court date in the re-organization process was postponed from June 18th to July 29th-30th. Impacted MLB/NHL/NBA teams are hoping to gain clarity from that but the so far the leagues have appeared to be caught wrong-footed at each step of the process.
The lead negotiators are new - David Stearns led a very disciplined spending first offseason with the Mets. Super agent Scott Boras is fresh off his worst nightmare of an offseason. 4 top free agents this past offseason represented by Boras were dubbed “the Boras 4” as they sat unsigned, all eventually signing for a lot less than they were projected to get. 1 of the 4 has already fired Boras.
Most important for last - as hard as Scott Boras has tried to frame Alonso as the Mets version of Aaron Judge, through more than half the season Pete is having anything but an Aaron Judge walk year. This could end up his least productive year as a big leaguer, currently pacing towards his first year under 2 fwar.
Even with hindsight Pete’s decision to turn down last year’s offer is understandable. It was right after a monster offseason. There was no “Boras 4” crash and burn. The RSN implosion hadn’t fully black swan’d yet. He had an agent who was negotiating the first mega deal of his career (and who knows maybe gave bad advice?).
Those are understandable reasons for what turned out to be bad decision, though I’m sure it hasn’t been an easy one to live with as his chances of a better contract have taken hit after hit.
So what does a fair offer look like today?
Let’s start with the relevant comps:
The Joel Sherman article linked above also provides detailed context to that declined offer in relation to Matt Olson’s, which from the day it was signed was the most obvious comp for Alonso:
The bid was influenced by the eight-year, $168 million extension fellow first baseman Matt Olson had signed with the Braves before the 2022 season. The difference is that Olson signed two years before free agency. Alonso would have just one year until free agency. So the Mets offer reflected the final seven seasons at $153 million of Olson’s pact — what would have been his age-29 walk year at $21 million plus six free-agent years at $132 million.
Alonso would be 29 in his walk year, so he would be topping Olson’s total from that age forward. The offer also was designed to be enticing because it was worth more in “current value” than the six-year, $162 million free-agent pact that Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers. The Players Association calculated that deal at about $148 million in current value due to heavy deferrals.
If we revisit a similar logic to last year and adjust new offer to the final 6 seasons of Olson’s deal instead of last year’s 7, that would be 6 years $132m.
For all the reasons described above it would seem unrealistic that Pete gets anywhere close to twice as many years and +$50m guaranteed over what Bellinger just got. That said for the Mets to make him a compelling offer now, they need to offer something he’d worry he can’t get on the open market, so anything under 3 years is probably a non-starter. Which brings us into a tighter range of a 3-5 years.
The obvious thing the Mets could do to make a shorter offer more appealing is increase the AAV. $25m AAV is an interesting number because it would be meaningfully higher than Olson and also higher than the present day value of Freeman’s after accounting for deferrals. A nice messaging win for Pete.
4 years at $25m totaling $100m total feels to me like something of a sweet spot. If you include the $20m he made this year, that leaves him only $38m below the deal he passed on last year but also gets him back to free agency 2 years earlier at age 33 where it’s possible he could earn that back or more.
Boras is now pretty famous for his dressed up opt out structures, so the other thing they could do is dress up a 4 year guaranteed deal with 5th/6th year options and incentives that trigger (or turn to team options) based on performance, which could again give him a path to not just earning back but exceeding what he’d passed on. That seems like a fair compromise for both sides.
If I were Pete, what’s the minimum I’d accept?
I believe Pete would need to consider strongly accepting any offer that guaranteed him more money than the $80m Cody Bellinger got this past offseason. His career earnings are $44.7m so the chance to guarantee double that amount before the next 100 mph fastball gets thrown in his direction seems like a pitch he shouldn’t pass on. Not in the midst of what for him individually is a mediocre at best season. Bellinger was younger, coming off a better year, and a much better defensive player so his comp isn’t even Pete’s floor. What if the open market values him closer to Boras clients Rhys Hoskins or JD Martinez? Both could be lined up next to him on the FA market.
So if I were Pete, the 2 “wins” I’d push hard for are:
An AAV higher than Freeman/Olson since the deal is likely to be shorter term.
4th guaranteed year - even if it means no opt out.
It’s possible the Mets would prefer to spread the deal longer to lower the AAV, and if that happens then the deal will get closer to looking like Olson’s again. 5 years 115m is slightly more than the final 5 years of Olson’s deal and just 1 vesting option could make it bigger than the last 6 years of Olson’s deal so that should be something of a no-brainer for Pete if offered. But with the Met’s payroll coming down so much next year though I doubt they worry too much about a few million of potential tax savings.
I expect the Mets will try to grind down the guaranteed years as low as possible, maybe even trying to hold the line at the same 3 years Bellinger got with options. If that’s where the Mets’ priority is my focus would be beating the $80m Bellinger got and getting the 4th year guaranteed in return for no-opt out. That’s where Pete has some leverage because if the Mets are trying to get Pete extended early now, it’s unlikely they will want him to have an opt out a year later if the market turns around.
Since joining team Pete, Scott Boras has been more public than usual expressing openness to early extensions talks. Now the question is, after their first half season together is David Stearns? If so there may not be a better time to buy.