How The '25 Salary Cap Impacts '24 Decisions
The Giants aren't at the crossroads yet, but it's on the horizon
Right before the Andrew Thomas extension was announced I wrote a post with the chart below looking forward at the Giants 3 year cap situation to show how most of a team’s cap spending is typically concentrated in their top handful of core players signed to multi-year contracts (think of them like the edge pieces of a team’s cap puzzle, the biggest ones being the corner pieces). Look no farther than the Giants top 9 cap slots as of July 2023 to see how much changes quickly in the NFL.
At least 4 and maybe 5 of them are probably browsing Zillow right now — and ironically the player most frequently wished away (Daniel Jones) isn’t even one of them.
Here’s the updated (and slightly rearranged) version:
Takeaways for the current top 9
Right now the roster only has 2 contracts that go beyond this chart - Thomas and Lawrence. They are cornerstones and probably the only veterans who you’d comfortably bet on still being on the roster even after 2025.
Okereke had a great debut season that exceeded almost all expectations so there’s an argument he’s also a core player, even if he doesn’t play a premium position.
Daniel Jones is the crossroads and the crossroads is Daniel Jones. Without him and Waller the 2025 bar would total less than 90m, which would give the team a lot of spending power in 2025 even if there were 2 or more names added in free agency 2024. There has been a lot of discussion about whether or not the Giants should take a QB high in the 2024 draft and if there’s one thing this chart tells me it’s emphatically that they should if they can get a prospect worthy of the selection (obviously you can’t force it if there’s not a player worthy of the pick). Future drafts hold no guarantees and they will have plenty of cap room to operate in the scenario where they move on from Jones. I think a simple thought experiment helps clarify this — if Daniel Jones doesn’t deliver in 2024 for whatever reason, what would be harder to buy in free agency March 2025 with the theoretical $20m of savings from Daniel Jones contract - a new QB or a position player close in quality to whomever their non-QB draft pick would be? The answer to that question is obviously the non-QB because QBs are much harder to find and the only starting QBs under $20m are rookie scale. Imagine the situation they would find themselves in if they pass on a QB this year, want to move on from Jones, but are also stuck 2 months away from a lesser QB draft with the world knowing they need a QB? What would it matter if Rome Odunze is a stud? With several quality QB prospects in this year’s draft I’d be surprised if they don’t act accordingly, unless they can’t because the guys they like go #1-3 and they can’t get up there.
On the opposite end of the Okereke addition, it’s possible Waller has already played his last game in New York. Cutting (or trading) him would net the Giants about $6.7m of savings. He’s entering his age 32 and he’s struggled with soft tissue injuries 3 straight years. The $6.7m difference between keeping him or cutting him is probably pretty close to what his open market value would be so the decision likely depends on whatever the alternative uses of the money are. Would they rather pay that $6.7m to Waller or use it to put towards Barkley entering his age 27 even though he’s a running back? He’s been healthier and even with poor OLs he made a lot more plays than Waller in 2023 (and 2022). A pay cut could also make sense for both sides.
Thibodeaux being in the 9th slot despite being on a rookie contract helps show how the Giants have maintained a pretty clean balance sheet even if they are artificially tight to the cap right now in 2024 because of some void years and contract structures. His 2026 salary above is an estimate of his 5th year option and he and the rest of his 2022 draft class will be extension eligible after next season.
What this means for 2024 Free Agency
Not to overstate the obvious, the most important takeaway is find more Okerekes and fewer Wallers/Glowinskis. In free agency that’s easier said than done though even if you are only trying to find 1 or 2 players on that level out of hundreds of players. So that’s where the expectation level needs to be set. Free agency is a low probability game and the more you spend the more risk you create. With 7 starters contracts expiring the Giants have the resources to add a few before the draft, but how many available players are they are confident stacking on that chart for 3+ years?
The first question they should probably ask themselves is whether or not the known quantities of Barkley or McKinney are on that level because both are likely to cost approximately the same amount Okereke slotted into. I would say Barkley improves the team’s chances of winning any game by a similar margin to Okereke, so depending on his ask I would probably try to get something fair done. That would likely guarantee Barkley more than they were willing to guarantee him in total last year counting what they already paid him in 2023, but that’s sunk cost and they may be able to get a lower AAV against the cap which could be something of a win/win. This is a very deep RB class so if Barkley’s price escalates there should be some cheaper alternatives available since they likely don’t have a replacement on the current roster.
The same calculus holds with McKinney but I’m less comfortable guessing on his contract because it wouldn’t shock me if he signs for twice as much or half as much as Barkley. He’s been a more volatile performer at a position that teams value very independently. If there’s a fair deal to be had I think he’s also generally a more known quantity than going external for a free agent.
The obvious area where they need to tap into veteran free agency is the offensive line. Ideally it would be a plus starting right guard who can stabilize the spot in between Evan Neal and JMS, and even more ideally it would be a player with the flexibility to move to right tackle in case Evan Neal can’t stabilize that spot himself. Michael Onwenu seems like a very logical target if he hits the open market having played both positions effectively for new OL coach Carmen Bricillo. Similar logic connected Mark Glowinski and Bobby Johnson so this may create some uncomfortable deja vu but you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
NE has a lot of cap space so if Onwenu doesn’t get to free agency Robert Hunt could be a good alternative with Miami being squeezed by the cap. They may need to do some cap maneuvering to accommodate a big signing under the 2024 cap, but the future is clean enough that is worth doing for the right player — and if choices need to be made the right offensive lineman probably needs to be the priority over Barkley, McKinney, and/or Waller.
They can spend to add more than that if motivated but I’m not sure it’s wise to do so even though that would leave a few position groups needing to bootstrap talent elsewhere. They’ve done that reasonably effectively with smaller deals over the last couple years, including getting a few starters on VSBs like Richie James and Fabian Moureau. Maybe there’s enough space to add 1 more multi-year veteran defensive player if they let more than 1 player go or get aggressive restructuring Thomas or Lawrence, but they’d have to be pretty confident it’s another Okereke. Signing 2 multi-year free agents from the outside doubles the chances one of them is a dud. There’s also the comp pick game to factor in where by letting more players leave via free agency they can gain extra draft picks in 2025. With Barkley and McKinney they are possibly set up well to bring back a meaningful pick if they play their cards right.
The Upshot
Beyond FA the more important factor in roster building is draft capital and the third year in a row they have a lot of draft capital, even if they spend a big chunk of it early on a QB. Even though the draft comes after free agency it needs to always be top of mind because drafting well is the force multiplier because you get 4+ years of prime aged seasons at an extreme discount. That’s why I think just about everything they do this offseason needs to be oriented towards that crossroads in March 2025, but especially their strategy with the offseason’s biggest resource which is their #6 overall pick. Just imagine how different those 3-year charts look if they found this year’s CJ Stroud locked in under $10m per year until 2027 with 3 option years after that?
Draft capital isn’t only realized with the premium picks on day 1/2 though, developing young players on cost effective deals to fill snaps vacated by more expensive veterans is also key to not end up having to overpay backups. Of the 7 currently expiring starters 4 of them were on defense but behind them last year 6 rookie scale players logged 100+ snaps as backups/fill-in starters. In year 3 with a lot of position staff level continuity they need to assess correctly where they have talent ready to step up like Micah McFadden last year and where they most need reinforcements beyond minimum salary vets.